On Sunday, November 23, 2025, at 20:00 local time, Elche CF will host Real Madrid at the Estadio Manuel Martinez Valero in Elche, Spain, in what could be the most tense La Liga fixture of Matchday 13. Despite being heavy favorites, Real Madrid enters the match reeling — their first competitive game since a frustrating 0-0 draw with Rayo Vallecano and a 1-0 Champions League defeat to Liverpool. Head coach Xabi Alonso knows this isn’t just about points. It’s about momentum. And for a team that’s led the league since September, the pressure to reassert dominance is mounting.
Elche’s Home Fortress Holds Strong — But Can It Stop Real Madrid?
Don’t count out Elche CF just yet. Managed by Eder Sarabia, the newly promoted side has turned their home ground into a fortress. In six consecutive La Liga matches at the Estadio Manuel Martinez Valero, they’ve gone unbeaten — three wins, three draws. Their defense? Remarkable. They’ve conceded just 0.40 goals per game at home, keeping clean sheets in 60% of those matches. Even in their last outing, a 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad, they held firm until Mikel Oyarzabal’s 89th-minute penalty snatched a point. Defender Pedro Bigas remains doubtful, but otherwise, the squad is intact. They’ve got grit. They’ve got organization. And they’ve got nothing to lose.
But here’s the twist: Elche’s home form doesn’t translate to away games. They’ve lost all three road matches this season. And Real Madrid? They’re the best away team in La Liga — scoring 2.67 goals per game on the road, conceding only 0.50. That’s not a fluke. That’s precision.
Real Madrid’s Star Power and Injury Woes
Without Fede Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, Dani Carvajal, and Antonio Rüdiger, you’d expect cracks. But Real Madrid keeps defying logic. Their defense, with only 10 goals conceded in 12 games, is tied for the best in the league. And then there’s Kylian Mbappé. The French superstar has 23 goals in 20 matches across club and country — averaging one goal every 90 minutes. He’s not just scoring; he’s carrying the team. His presence alone changes how opponents defend. And with Trent Alexander-Arnold expected back in the lineup, Real Madrid’s width and creativity could overwhelm Elche’s compact backline.
Statistically, the gap is staggering. Real Madrid averages 2.33 goals per game; Elche manages 1.40. Real Madrid keeps clean sheets in 67% of matches; Elche manages 60%. Expected goals? Real Madrid at 2.75, Elche at 2.29. Even when Elche scores, it’s usually late — 71% of their home goals come after the 45th minute. But Real Madrid? They rarely collapse in the second half. In fact, they’ve conceded just once at home in their last seven La Liga matches.
Predictions Converge — But Not Without Hesitation
Every major outlet — Goal.com, Sportskeeda, SportsMole, Sports Illustrated, FootballPredictions.com — agrees on one thing: Real Madrid will win. But not easily. Goal.com predicts Elche 1-2 Real Madrid, with Mbappé scoring twice and Rafa Mir netting for Elche. Sportskeeda goes for a clean sheet: 0-2. SportsMole captures the tension best: “Elche deserve respect for their start to the season… but we’re still backing Los Blancos to navigate their way to all three points.”
Forebet’s algorithm gives Real Madrid a 55% chance of victory — barely above even odds. That’s telling. This isn’t a rout waiting to happen. It’s a tight, tactical battle where one moment of brilliance — a Mbappé dart down the left, a defensive lapse, a set-piece — could decide everything.
Why This Match Matters Beyond the Table
A win for Real Madrid would give them 34 points after 13 games — their best tally since the 2011-12 season. It would also extend their lead over Barcelona to four points, putting pressure on the Catalan giants ahead of their own fixture. But more than that, it’s about identity. After two uninspired performances, Real Madrid needs to prove they’re still the team that dominated Europe last season. For Elche CF, it’s about proving they belong. A draw here would be a statement. A win? That would rewrite the script of their season.
And then there’s the history. Real Madrid hasn’t lost to Elche since 1975 — 50 years of dominance. That’s not just tradition. It’s psychological weight. Elche’s players know this. Their fans know this. And yet… they’re still here. Still fighting. Still believing.
What’s Next?
If Real Madrid wins, expect Xabi Alonso to rotate heavily in their next Champions League clash. If they drop points? Questions will swirl about their title credentials. For Elche, a loss won’t kill their season — they’re still in 11th, only six points from safety. But a draw? That could spark a mid-table surge. Either way, Sunday night in Elche won’t just be about goals. It’ll be about pride, pressure, and the quiet resilience of a team that refuses to be written off.
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Kylian Mbappé’s performance impacted Real Madrid’s league position?
Mbappé’s 23 goals in 20 matches have been the driving force behind Real Madrid’s 31-point tally. Without him, Los Blancos would be tied or behind Barcelona. He’s scored in 14 of their 12 league games, and his 1.0 goal-per-90-minute average is the highest among top scorers in Europe’s top five leagues. His pace and finishing have turned tight matches into wins, especially when the team struggles to create chances.
Why is Elche’s home form so strong despite their overall struggles?
Elche’s compact 4-2-3-1 shape, disciplined pressing, and high defensive line have worked brilliantly at the Estadio Manuel Martinez Valero. The home crowd’s energy, combined with coach Eder Sarabia’s focus on defensive structure, has limited opponents’ space. They’ve conceded only 0.40 goals per home game — better than top-four sides like Atlético Madrid. But away from home, their lack of midfield control and pace exposes them, which is why they’ve lost all three road matches.
What’s the historical significance of Real Madrid’s record against Elche?
Real Madrid hasn’t lost to Elche in any competition since 1975 — a 50-year streak spanning 17 matches. That includes 13 wins and four draws. Elche’s last victory was a 2-1 home win in La Liga in 1975, before the club even had a permanent stadium. The psychological edge is massive. Even in seasons when Elche has been competitive, they’ve never managed to beat Madrid on their own terms — a fact that weighs on their players and fans alike.
Could Elche pull off an upset if key Real Madrid players are missing?
It’s possible — but unlikely. Even without Valverde, Tchouameni, and Carvajal, Real Madrid’s depth is extraordinary. Players like Federico Valverde’s replacement, Endrick, and young midfielder Dani Ceballos have stepped up consistently. Elche’s attack lacks the firepower to exploit gaps consistently, and their last seven league games have seen both teams score — a trend Real Madrid rarely allows. A late goal or penalty might get them a draw, but a win? No team has managed that in half a century.
What does this match mean for Real Madrid’s title chances?
A win would solidify their lead over Barcelona and ease pressure ahead of a brutal December schedule. But a draw or loss would open the door for Barcelona and Atlético Madrid to close the gap. Real Madrid’s 31 points after 13 games is their best since 2011-12 — but this season’s competition is tighter. Every point matters. Sunday isn’t just about three points — it’s about maintaining belief in their title credentials.
Is there any chance Elche could score more than one goal?
It’s rare, but not impossible. Elche has scored two or more goals in only two of their 12 league games this season. However, they’ve netted twice in three of their last five home matches — including their 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad. Their threat comes from set pieces and counterattacks, especially after halftime. But Real Madrid’s defense, under Xabi Alonso, has been exceptionally disciplined. A second Elche goal would likely require a major defensive error — something that’s happened only once in their last six away games.